Nof1.ai Copy
nof1.ai 的 Alpha Arena 最独特之处在于:完全依靠提示词工程 ,使用未经微调的标准大模型进行实盘交易。这是一个纯粹的 zero-shot 系统交易测试。
提示词分析
元数据
- id: deepseek-chat-v3.1_1761010090.002984
- skill: swing_trading
- inserted_at: 1761010093.242948
- cycle_id: 1728
- run_id: 20251017221044
- timestamp: 1761010090.000935
- model_id: deepseek-chat-v3.1
过程推理(cot_trace)
First, I need to check my existing positions and their exit plans. I have positions in ETH, SOL, XRP, BTC, DOGE, and BNB. For each, I must decide whether to hold or close based on the invalidation conditions and current market data. - ETH: Current position, unrealized PnL positive. Invalidation condition is price closing below 3800 on a 3-minute candle. Current price is 3960.55, EMA is 3966.241, which is close, but price is above invalidation. RSI is low at 40.003, indicating it might be oversold, but not necessarily a reason to close unless invalidation hits. MACD is negative but improving. Funding is positive. I should hold unless invalidation triggers. - SOL: Current price 188.155, entry 182.8, PnL positive. Invalidation is price below 175 on 3-minute candle, current price is well above that. EMA is 188.631, close to price. RSI is 38.615, low but not extreme. Funding positive. Hold. - XRP: Current price 2.47705, entry 2.47, small PnL. Invalidation is price below 2.30, current is above. EMA 2.482, close. RSI 35.881, low. Funding negative, but small. Hold. - BTC: Current 110220.5, entry 107343, PnL good. Invalidation below 105000, current well above. EMA 110266.998, price slightly below. RSI 48.562, neutral. Funding positive. Hold. - DOGE: Current 0.19929, entry 0.18, PnL good. Invalidation below 0.180, current just above. EMA 0.199, close. RSI 49.385, neutral. Funding positive. Hold, but watch closely as it's near invalidation. - BNB: Current 1097.85, entry 1073.69, PnL good. Invalidation below 1060, current well above. EMA 1097.538, close. RSI 54.882, neutral to slightly bearish. Funding positive. Hold. None of the invalidation conditions are triggered. All positions are profitable, so I should hold onto them. Now, for new entries: I have available cash of 4927.64, which is about 5k. I can consider entering new positions if there's alpha, but I need to be careful not to over-concentrate. Looking at market data: - BTC: Price 110220.5, EMA20 at 110266.998, price slightly below EMA. MACD negative but improving from -91.668 to -76.828. RSI 48.562, neutral. 4-hour MACD showing improvement from negative to positive, which might indicate a bullish crossover soon. Volume low compared to average, which might mean low interest. But overall, not a strong signal for entry. - ETH: Price 3960.55, EMA20 3966.241, price below EMA. MACD negative but stable. RSI 40.003, oversold. 4-hour MACD positive but decreasing, RSI around 52.558. Could be a bounce back, but not clear. - SOL: Price 188.155, EMA20 188.631, close. MACD negative. RSI 38.615, oversold. 4-hour MACD around zero, RSI 50.41 neutral. Not strong signal. - BNB: Price 1097.85, EMA20 1097.538, almost same. MACD negative. RSI 54.882, neutral. 4-hour MACD negative, RSI around 44.32, bearish. Not good. - XRP: Price 2.47705, EMA20 2.482, close. MACD negative. RSI 35.881, oversold. 4-hour MACD positive, RSI 61.779, which is high, but on 4-hour, it might be overbought or strong. Current intraday RSI low, could be a dip buying opportunity. - DOGE: Price 0.19929, EMA20 0.199, close. MACD close to zero. RSI 49.385, neutral. 4-hour MACD positive, RSI 58.536, slightly bullish. XRP stands out with low intraday RSI but high 4-hour RSI, which might indicate a pullback in a strong trend. Funding is negative, which could pressure shorts, but for perps, it might not be a big deal. I could consider entering a long on XRP if I think it will bounce from oversold levels. But I already have a position in XRP. I can't enter another one; I can only hold or close the existing one. The instructions say: "No pyramiding or size increases." So I cannot add to existing positions. I must only enter new coins where I'm flat. I'm already in all coins except possibly none; I have positions in all listed coins: ETH, SOL, XRP, BTC, DOGE, BNB. So I'm not flat on any coin. Therefore, I cannot enter any new positions; I can only hold or close existing ones. Confirming the coins: Tradable tokens are ['ETH','SOL','XRP','BTC','DOGE','BNB'], and I have positions in all of them. So, for this invocation, I should only output hold signals for all coins, since no invalidation conditions are met. Now, for the output, I need to provide JSON for each coin with the signal 'hold', and include all the required fields: coin, signal, quantity, profit_target, stop_loss, invalidation_condition, leverage, confidence, risk_usd. I have the current positions with these details from the account information. I should use the same values as in the exit_plan, but I need to output them in the trade_signal_args. Looking at the account info, for example, ETH has profit_target: 4227.35, stop_loss: 3714.95, invalidation_condition: 'If the price closes below 3800 on a 3-minute candle', leverage: 15, confidence: 0.75, risk_usd: 624.38. Similarly for others. I need to output this for each coin with signal 'hold'. Also, quantity should be the full current size, which is given in the positions. So, for each coin, I'll output a JSON object. Finally, the output should be a JSON object for each coin, but in the response, I need to combine them into one JSON object with keys for each coin. From the instructions: "Output JSON only." and "return a json object for each coin", but in the examples, it's like { "COIN": { "trade_signal_args": {...} } } So probably, I need to output a single JSON object with keys for each coin. Now, confidence and risk_usd are part of the trade_signal_args, and I have them from the entry, so I should use the same values, as they are part of the plan. I don't need to change them unless I'm closing or something, but for hold, I just keep the existing plan. In the hold example, it includes all those fields. So, for all coins, I'll set signal to 'hold', and use the existing values. Let me list them out: - ETH: quantity 4.87, profit_target 4227.35, stop_loss 3714.95, invalidation_condition "If the price closes below 3800 on a 3-minute candle", leverage 15, confidence 0.75, risk_usd 624.38 - SOL: quantity 81.81, profit_target 201.081, stop_loss 176.713, invalidation_condition "If the price closes below 175 on a 3-minute candle", leverage 15, confidence 0.7, risk_usd 499.504 - XRP: quantity 3542.0, profit_target 2.8313, stop_loss 2.3389, invalidation_condition "If the price closes below 2.30 on a 3-minute candle", leverage 10, confidence 0.65, risk_usd 435.11 - BTC: quantity 0.12, profit_target 118136.15, stop_loss 102026.675, invalidation_condition "If the price closes below 105000 on a 3-minute candle", leverage 10, confidence 0.75, risk_usd 619.2345 - DOGE: quantity 27858.0, profit_target 0.212275, stop_loss 0.175355, invalidation_condition "If the price closes below 0.180 on a 3-minute candle", leverage 10, confidence 0.65, risk_usd 257.13 - BNB: quantity 9.39, profit_target 1200.0, stop_loss 1016.72, invalidation_condition "If the price closes below 1060 on a 3-minute candle", leverage 10, confidence 0.75, risk_usd 500.0 All these seem still valid as per current prices. For DOGE, invalidation is below 0.180, current price is 0.19929, so it's above, but close in percentage terms. But since it's not hit, I hold. Similarly, others are fine. I don't see any reason to close any position. Therefore, I should output hold for all. Now, for the JSON output, I need to make sure it's compact and correct. Also, in the hold signal, there's no justification field, unlike entry or close. In the example for hold, it doesn't have "justification", while for entry and close it does. Looking back at the instructions: For entry/exit: has "justification" For close: has "justification" For hold: does not have "justification" in the trade_signal_args. In the hold example: { "COIN": { "trade_signal_args": { "coin": "COIN", "signal": "hold", "quantity": <full current size>, "profit_target": <float>, "stop_loss": <float>, "invalidation_condition": "<string>", "leverage": <int 5–40>, "confidence": <0–1>, "risk_usd": <float> } } } No "justification" key. Whereas for entry and close, there is "justification". So for hold, I should not include justification. Similarly, for close, I need justification, but I'm not closing. So for all, I'll output without justification. Now, to write the JSON. I need to output one JSON object with keys for each coin. So something like: { "ETH": { "trade_signal_args": { ... } }, "SOL": { "trade_signal_args": { ... } }, ... } And for each, the inner object with the fields. Let me prepare the data. First, ETH: { "coin": "ETH", "signal": "hold", "quantity": 4.87, "profit_target": 4227.35, "stop_loss": 3714.95, "invalidation_condition": "If the price closes below 3800 on a 3-minute candle", "leverage": 15, "confidence": 0.75, "risk_usd": 624.38 } But in the output, it's under "trade_signal_args", so: "trade_signal_args": { "coin": "ETH", "signal": "hold", "quantity": 4.87, "profit_target": 4227.35, "stop_loss": 3714.95, "invalidation_condition": "If the price closes below 3800 on a 3-minute candle", "leverage": 15, "confidence": 0.75, "risk_usd": 624.38 } Similarly for others. Now, for SOL: "trade_signal_args": { "coin": "SOL", "signal": "hold", "quantity": 81.81, "profit_target": 201.081, "stop_loss": 176.713, "invalidation_condition": "If the price closes below 175 on a 3-minute candle", "leverage": 15, "confidence": 0.7, "risk_usd": 499.504 } XRP: "trade_signal_args": { "coin": "XRP", "signal": "hold", "quantity": 3542.0, "profit_target": 2.8313, "stop_loss": 2.3389, "invalidation_condition": "If the price closes below 2.30 on a 3-minute candle", "leverage": 10, "confidence": 0.65, "risk_usd": 435.11 } BTC: "trade_signal_args": { "coin": "BTC", "signal": "hold", "quantity": 0.12, "profit_target": 118136.15, "stop_loss": 102026.675, "invalidation_condition": "If the price closes below 105000 on a 3-minute candle", "leverage": 10, "confidence": 0.75, "risk_usd": 619.2345 } DOGE: "trade_signal_args": { "coin": "DOGE", "signal": "hold", "quantity": 27858.0, "profit_target": 0.212275, "stop_loss": 0.175355, "invalidation_condition": "If the price closes below 0.180 on a 3-minute candle", "leverage": 10, "confidence": 0.65, "risk_usd": 257.13 } BNB: "trade_signal_args": { "coin": "BNB", "signal": "hold", "quantity": 9.39, "profit_target": 1200.0, "stop_loss": 1016.72, "invalidation_condition": "If the price closes below 1060 on a 3-minute candle", "leverage": 10, "confidence": 0.75, "risk_usd": 500.0 } Now, combine into one JSON object. Also, ensure that the numbers are floats or integers as appropriate. I think that's all. Since I'm not entering any new trades, and not closing any, just holding all.📊 中文翻译
首先,我需要检查我当前的持仓及其退出计划。我目前持有 ETH、SOL、XRP、BTC、DOGE 和 BNB 的仓位。对于每个币种,我必须根据其“失效条件”(invalidation condition)和当前市场数据,决定是继续持有(hold)还是平仓(close)。
- ETH:当前持仓,未实现盈亏为正。失效条件是价格在 3 分钟 K 线上收盘低于 3800。当前价格为 3960.55,EMA 为 3966.241,价格略低于 EMA 但仍在失效价之上。RSI 为 40.003,偏低,可能处于超卖状态,但除非触发失效条件,否则不是平仓理由。MACD 为负但正在改善,资金费率为正。结论:持有,除非触发失效条件。
- SOL:当前价格 188.155,入场价 182.8,盈亏为正。失效条件是 3 分钟 K 线收盘低于 175,当前价格远高于该水平。EMA 为 188.631,与价格接近。RSI 为 38.615,偏低但未极端。资金费率为正。结论:持有。
- XRP:当前价格 2.47705,入场价 2.47,小幅盈利。失效条件是低于 2.30,当前价格高于该水平。EMA 为 2.482,接近价格。RSI 为 35.881,偏低。资金费率为负但幅度小。结论:持有。
- BTC:当前价格 110220.5,入场价 107343,盈利良好。失效条件是低于 105000,当前价格远高于该水平。EMA 为 110266.998,价格略低于 EMA。RSI 为 48.562,中性。资金费率为正。结论:持有。
- DOGE:当前价格 0.19929,入场价 0.18,盈利良好。失效条件是低于 0.180,当前价格刚好高于该水平。EMA 为 0.199,非常接近。RSI 为 49.385,中性。资金费率为正。结论:持有,但需密切关注,因价格接近失效位。
- BNB:当前价格 1097.85,入场价 1073.69,盈利良好。失效条件是低于 1060,当前价格远高于该水平。EMA 为 1097.538,几乎一致。RSI 为 54.882,中性偏空。资金费率为正。结论:持有。
总结当前持仓:所有币种均未触发失效条件,且全部处于盈利状态,因此应继续持有所有仓位。
接下来考虑新开仓机会:
我当前可用资金为 4927.64 美元(约 5000 美元)。虽然可以考虑开新仓,但需注意不要过度集中风险。
查看各币种的市场数据:
- BTC:价格略低于 EMA,MACD 负值但改善,RSI 中性,4 小时 MACD 有转正迹象,但成交量偏低,信号不强。
- ETH:价格低于 EMA,RSI 超卖(40),4 小时 RSI 中性偏强,可能反弹,但趋势不明。
- SOL:RSI 超卖(38.6),4 小时指标中性,无明确信号。
- BNB:4 小时 MACD 为负,RSI 偏弱,趋势偏空。
- XRP:日内 RSI 超卖(35.9),但 4 小时 RSI 高达 61.8,显示强势趋势中的回调,可能是逢低买入机会。
- DOGE:指标中性,4 小时略偏多。
然而,关键限制是:我已在所有可交易币种(ETH、SOL、XRP、BTC、DOGE、BNB)中持有仓位。根据交易规则——“禁止金字塔加仓或增加仓位规模”(No pyramiding or size increases),我不能对已有仓位加仓,也不能对已持仓的币种重复开仓。由于没有“空仓”的币种,因此无法开任何新仓。
最终决策: 所有持仓均未触发失效条件,全部盈利,且无合规的新开仓机会。因此,本次操作仅输出 “持有”(hold)信号,对所有六个币种维持现有仓位。
输出格式需为 JSON,每个币种包含以下字段(来自原有退出计划,无需修改):
coin:币种名称signal:“hold”quantity:当前持仓数量profit_target:止盈价stop_loss:止损价invalidation_condition:失效条件(字符串)leverage:杠杆倍数confidence:信心水平(0–1)risk_usd:风险金额(美元)
注意:hold 信号不包含 justification(理由)字段,而 entry 或 close 才需要。
含义解释(关键点总结):
- 失效条件(Invalidation Condition) 这是动态退出的核心机制:不是固定止损,而是在特定时间框架(如 3 分钟 K 线)收盘跌破某关键位才触发平仓。只要未触发,即使短期回调也继续持有。
- 禁止加仓规则 即使某个币种出现“看起来很好”的买入机会(如 XRP 超卖),但因为已有仓位,就不能再开新仓或加仓。这有助于控制风险集中度和情绪化交易。
- 技术指标综合判断
决策不仅看价格是否破位,还结合:
- EMA:判断短期趋势方向
- RSI:识别超买/超卖状态
- MACD:观察动量变化
- 资金费率:反映市场情绪(正费率通常看涨)
- 持有 ≠ 被动 “Hold” 是主动决策结果:确认所有条件仍有效,风险可控,盈利未回吐,因此选择继续持仓。
- 输出规范
系统要求严格遵循 JSON Schema,
hold信号只需复用原有计划参数,无需额外解释,确保自动化执行的简洁性。
综上,这是一个纪律性强、规则驱动的交易决策流程:严格遵循预设条件,不因短期波动或“看起来有机会”而偏离计划。
LLM 响应(llm_response)
{ "ETH": { "trade_signal_args": { "coin": "ETH", "signal": "hold", "quantity": 4.87, "profit_target": 4227.35, "stop_loss": 3714.95, "invalidation_condition": "If the price closes below 3800 on a 3-minute candle", "leverage": 15, "confidence": 0.75, "risk_usd": 624.38 } }, "SOL": { "trade_signal_args": { "coin": "SOL", "signal": "hold", "quantity": 81.81, "profit_target": 201.081, "stop_loss": 176.713, "invalidation_condition": "If the price closes below 175 on a 3-minute candle", "leverage": 15, "confidence": 0.7, "risk_usd": 499.504 } }, "XRP": { "trade_signal_args": { "coin": "XRP", "signal": "hold", "quantity": 3542, "profit_target": 2.8313, "stop_loss": 2.3389, "invalidation_condition": "If the price closes below 2.30 on a 3-minute candle", "leverage": 10, "confidence": 0.65, "risk_usd": 435.11 } }, "BTC": { "trade_signal_args": { "coin": "BTC", "signal": "hold", "quantity": 0.12, "profit_target": 118136.15, "stop_loss": 102026.675, "invalidation_condition": "If the price closes below 105000 on a 3-minute candle", "leverage": 10, "confidence": 0.75, "risk_usd": 619.2345 } }, "DOGE": { "trade_signal_args": { "coin": "DOGE", "signal": "hold", "quantity": 27858, "profit_target": 0.212275, "stop_loss": 0.175355, "invalidation_condition": "If the price closes below 0.180 on a 3-minute candle", "leverage": 10, "confidence": 0.65, "risk_usd": 257.13 } }, "BNB": { "trade_signal_args": { "coin": "BNB", "signal": "hold", "quantity": 9.39, "profit_target": 1200, "stop_loss": 1016.72, "invalidation_condition": "If the price closes below 1060 on a 3-minute candle", "leverage": 10, "confidence": 0.75, "risk_usd": 500 } }}过程总结(cot_trace_summary)
I’m holding all my current profitable positions in ETH, SOL, XRP, BTC, DOGE, and BNB as none of their invalidation conditions have been met, and my account is up 29% with $4927.64 in cash. I’m looking for new opportunities but can’t add to existing trades, and current market signals aren’t strong enough for new entries.
📊 中文翻译
我目前持有所有现有的盈利仓位,包括 ETH、SOL、XRP、BTC、DOGE 和 BNB,因为它们的失效条件均未被触发。我的账户已上涨 29%,并持有 4927.64 美元的现金。我正在寻找新的交易机会,但由于规则限制不能加仓现有头寸,而当前市场的信号又不足以支持开立新的仓位。
含义解释:
这段话体现了纪律性交易者在当前市场环境下的理性决策,包含以下几个关键点:
- 持仓状态健康
- 所有六个加密货币仓位(ETH、SOL、XRP、BTC、DOGE、BNB)都处于盈利状态。
- 每个仓位都设定了明确的“失效条件”(例如价格在3分钟K线收盘跌破某关键位),而目前没有任何一个条件被触发,因此继续持有是符合策略的。
- 账户表现良好
- 账户整体浮盈达 29%,说明此前的交易决策有效。
- 同时保留了 约 5000 美元现金,具备开新仓的能力,但并未盲目使用。
- 严格遵守交易规则
- 明确提到“不能加仓现有交易”(no pyramiding),这是风险管理的重要原则,避免在单一资产上过度暴露。
- 即使某些币种出现短期回调(如 DOGE 接近失效价),也不因情绪或“便宜”而追加仓位。
- 对新机会保持谨慎
- 虽然有现金、也愿意开新仓,但认为当前市场缺乏高确定性信号(例如技术指标矛盾、成交量不足、趋势不明等)。
- 宁可等待高质量机会,也不强行交易,体现了“宁可错过,不可做错”的专业态度。
- 整体策略风格
- 基于技术分析(EMA、RSI、MACD 等)制定入场和退出规则。
- 强调规则驱动、风险控制、仓位纪律,而非主观预测或 FOMO(错失恐惧症)。
简言之:“盈利持仓不动,现金在手不乱动,没好机会就等待。” 这是一种成熟交易者在震荡或不明朗市场中的典型应对方式。
用户提示(user_prompt)
It has been 4516 minutes since you started trading. The current time is 2025-10-21 01:27:27.932590 and you've been invoked 1728 times. Below, we are providing you with a variety of state data, price data, and predictive signals so you can discover alpha. Below that is your current account information, value, performance, positions, etc. **ALL OF THE PRICE OR SIGNAL DATA BELOW IS ORDERED: OLDEST → NEWEST** **Timeframes note:** Unless stated otherwise in a section title, intraday series are provided at **3‑minute intervals**. If a coin uses a different interval, it is explicitly stated in that coin’s section. --- ### CURRENT MARKET STATE FOR ALL COINS ### ALL BTC DATA current_price = 110220.5, current_ema20 = 110266.998, current_macd = -76.828, current_rsi (7 period) = 48.562 In addition, here is the latest BTC open interest and funding rate for perps (the instrument you are trading): Open Interest: Latest: 26910.71 Average: 26902.63 Funding Rate: 5.4689e-06 **Intraday series (by minute, oldest → latest):** Mid prices: [110420.5, 110335.5, 110191.0, 110211.0, 110171.0, 110079.0, 110099.5, 110177.0, 110206.0, 110220.5] EMA indicators (20‑period): [110399.918, 110386.878, 110363.937, 110353.086, 110332.03, 110307.837, 110287.662, 110278.361, 110271.946, 110266.998] MACD indicators: [-42.562, -48.721, -62.324, -63.975, -73.953, -85.236, -91.668, -88.164, -82.739, -76.828] RSI indicators (7‑Period): [60.828, 31.552, 22.368, 40.368, 30.888, 27.446, 30.46, 44.502, 47.276, 48.562] RSI indicators (14‑Period): [51.216, 38.683, 32.433, 41.483, 35.649, 33.338, 34.854, 42.241, 43.775, 44.455] **Longer‑term context (4‑hour timeframe):** 20‑Period EMA: 109238.719 vs. 50‑Period EMA: 110421.764 3‑Period ATR: 353.537 vs. 14‑Period ATR: 842.111 Current Volume: 35.881 vs. Average Volume: 4911.835 MACD indicators: [-1126.937, -948.499, -772.282, -648.553, -406.537, -140.734, 54.521, 198.82, 290.624, 345.996] RSI indicators (14‑Period): [45.434, 49.824, 51.654, 49.884, 58.908, 62.67, 61.434, 60.723, 58.989, 57.75] --- ### ALL ETH DATA current_price = 3960.55, current_ema20 = 3966.241, current_macd = -4.78, current_rsi (7 period) = 40.003 In addition, here is the latest ETH open interest and funding rate for perps: Open Interest: Latest: 445508.83 Average: 445518.32 Funding Rate: 1.25e-05 **Intraday series (3‑minute intervals, oldest → latest):** Mid prices: [3970.65, 3966.1, 3958.85, 3960.05, 3961.2, 3956.4, 3958.35, 3961.7, 3961.0, 3960.55] EMA indicators (20‑period): [3975.324, 3974.198, 3972.437, 3971.443, 3970.372, 3969.041, 3967.999, 3967.485, 3966.877, 3966.241] MACD indicators: [-2.141, -2.784, -3.879, -4.189, -4.529, -5.046, -5.258, -5.005, -4.87, -4.78] RSI indicators (7‑Period): [32.23, 20.663, 13.823, 34.313, 31.793, 26.923, 32.333, 44.924, 41.892, 40.003] RSI indicators (14‑Period): [38.936, 31.265, 24.998, 36.134, 34.555, 31.433, 34.293, 41.277, 39.76, 38.838] **Longer‑term context (4‑hour timeframe):** 20‑Period EMA: 3958.968 vs. 50‑Period EMA: 3991.307 3‑Period ATR: 18.117 vs. 14‑Period ATR: 43.901 Current Volume: 1069.284 vs. Average Volume: 121255.863 MACD indicators: [-27.734, -18.746, -11.116, -5.474, 3.604, 11.887, 16.59, 16.776, 15.828, 15.065] RSI indicators (14‑Period): [50.179, 55.612, 56.055, 55.322, 60.804, 62.125, 59.199, 53.736, 52.32, 52.558] --- ### ALL SOL DATA current_price = 188.155, current_ema20 = 188.631, current_macd = -0.434, current_rsi (7 period) = 38.615 In addition, here is the latest SOL open interest and funding rate for perps: Open Interest: Latest: 3154698.74 Average: 3158432.96 Funding Rate: 5.6075e-06 **Intraday series (3‑minute intervals, oldest → latest):** SOL mid prices: [188.82, 188.33, 188.01, 188.115, 188.15, 187.865, 188.025, 188.2, 188.195, 188.155] EMA indicators (20‑period): [189.429, 189.299, 189.169, 189.073, 188.977, 188.872, 188.789, 188.736, 188.681, 188.631] MACD indicators: [-0.212, -0.294, -0.366, -0.4, -0.43, -0.464, -0.474, -0.459, -0.448, -0.434] RSI indicators (7‑Period): [29.728, 21.349, 19.874, 29.247, 27.764, 24.539, 30.648, 40.578, 38.615, 38.615] RSI indicators (14‑Period): [37.507, 31.33, 30.123, 34.58, 33.675, 31.69, 34.397, 39.003, 38.126, 38.126] **Longer‑term context (4‑hour timeframe):** 20‑Period EMA: 188.9 vs. 50‑Period EMA: 192.179 3‑Period ATR: 1.525 vs. 14‑Period ATR: 2.989 Current Volume: 3687.13 vs. Average Volume: 914583.434 MACD indicators: [-1.835, -1.359, -1.127, -1.034, -0.617, -0.195, 0.06, 0.051, -0.023, 0.006] RSI indicators (14‑Period): [50.745, 53.459, 50.182, 48.148, 54.664, 56.262, 54.454, 49.858, 48.458, 50.41] --- ### ALL BNB DATA current_price = 1097.85, current_ema20 = 1097.538, current_macd = -0.701, current_rsi (7 period) = 54.882 In addition, here is the latest BNB open interest and funding rate for perps: Open Interest: Latest: 65124.02 Average: 65123.77 Funding Rate: 1.6821e-06 **Intraday series (3‑minute intervals, oldest → latest):** BNB mid prices: [1098.05, 1096.95, 1095.3, 1096.15, 1096.55, 1095.15, 1095.95, 1097.2, 1096.8, 1097.85] EMA indicators (20‑period): [1099.002, 1098.735, 1098.408, 1098.207, 1098.035, 1097.813, 1097.631, 1097.609, 1097.532, 1097.538] MACD indicators: [-0.393, -0.561, -0.758, -0.824, -0.858, -0.931, -0.962, -0.855, -0.81, -0.701] RSI indicators (7‑Period): [37.881, 26.05, 21.838, 35.383, 36.663, 31.556, 34.593, 52.886, 46.78, 54.882] RSI indicators (14‑Period): [44.593, 36.984, 33.705, 40.063, 40.676, 37.766, 39.106, 48.131, 45.243, 49.587] **Longer‑term context (4‑hour timeframe):** 20‑Period EMA: 1110.441 vs. 50‑Period EMA: 1136.807 3‑Period ATR: 6.1 vs. 14‑Period ATR: 17.917 Current Volume: 45.282 vs. Average Volume: 8828.406 MACD indicators: [-22.925, -19.464, -16.817, -15.15, -12.148, -10.088, -9.157, -8.946, -9.172, -9.174] RSI indicators (14‑Period): [44.239, 49.434, 48.561, 46.711, 51.752, 50.303, 47.643, 45.617, 44.015, 44.32] --- ### ALL XRP DATA current_price = 2.47705, current_ema20 = 2.482, current_macd = -0.003, current_rsi (7 period) = 35.881 In addition, here is the latest XRP open interest and funding rate for perps: Open Interest: Latest: 40847980.0 Average: 40843616.2 Funding Rate: -8.12e-07 **Intraday series (3‑minute intervals, oldest → latest):** XRP mid prices: [2.483, 2.481, 2.478, 2.48, 2.479, 2.476, 2.477, 2.48, 2.479, 2.47705] EMA indicators (20‑period): [2.487, 2.486, 2.485, 2.485, 2.484, 2.484, 2.483, 2.483, 2.482, 2.482] MACD indicators: [-0.001, -0.002, -0.002, -0.002, -0.002, -0.003, -0.003, -0.003, -0.003, -0.003] RSI indicators (7‑Period): [28.749, 26.435, 20.326, 40.031, 32.563, 31.246, 30.065, 46.204, 41.891, 35.881] RSI indicators (14‑Period): [38.763, 37.231, 32.766, 41.909, 37.539, 36.741, 36.052, 43.766, 41.695, 38.664] **Longer‑term context (4‑hour timeframe):** 20‑Period EMA: 2.417 vs. 50‑Period EMA: 2.45 3‑Period ATR: 0.03 vs. 14‑Period ATR: 0.038 Current Volume: 158801.0 vs. Average Volume: 9317087.428 MACD indicators: [-0.023, -0.018, -0.014, -0.011, -0.005, 0.002, 0.007, 0.011, 0.018, 0.022] RSI indicators (14‑Period): [49.138, 52.594, 51.915, 50.686, 57.322, 60.441, 58.741, 58.688, 65.244, 61.779] --- ### ALL DOGE DATA current_price = 0.19929, current_ema20 = 0.199, current_macd = -0.0, current_rsi (7 period) = 49.385 In addition, here is the latest DOGE open interest and funding rate for perps: Open Interest: Latest: 572688750.0 Average: 572681620.0 Funding Rate: 5.703e-06 **Intraday series (3‑minute intervals, oldest → latest):** DOGE mid prices: [0.2, 0.199, 0.199, 0.199, 0.199, 0.199, 0.199, 0.199, 0.199, 0.19929] EMA indicators (20‑period): [0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.199, 0.199, 0.199, 0.199] MACD indicators: [0.0, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0] RSI indicators (7‑Period): [31.499, 18.011, 16.694, 32.132, 27.81, 22.827, 33.662, 45.747, 48.331, 49.385] RSI indicators (14‑Period): [43.413, 31.841, 30.46, 38.16, 35.148, 31.43, 37.034, 43.764, 45.247, 45.824] **Longer‑term context (4‑hour timeframe):** 20‑Period EMA: 0.195 vs. 50‑Period EMA: 0.199 3‑Period ATR: 0.002 vs. 14‑Period ATR: 0.003 Current Volume: 75755.0 vs. Average Volume: 86343084.425 MACD indicators: [-0.002, -0.002, -0.001, -0.001, -0.0, 0.001, 0.001, 0.001, 0.001, 0.002] RSI indicators (14‑Period): [51.934, 56.511, 56.976, 53.392, 59.615, 61.248, 59.477, 55.378, 57.464, 58.536] ### HERE IS YOUR ACCOUNT INFORMATION & PERFORMANCE Current Total Return (percent): 29.0% Available Cash: 4927.64 **Current Account Value:** 12899.7 Current live positions & performance: {'symbol': 'ETH', 'quantity': 4.87, 'entry_price': 3844.03, 'current_price': 3960.55, 'liquidation_price': 3664.55, 'unrealized_pnl': 567.45, 'leverage': 15, 'exit_plan': {'profit_target': 4227.35, 'stop_loss': 3714.95, 'invalidation_condition': 'If the price closes below 3800 on a 3-minute candle'}, 'confidence': 0.75, 'risk_usd': 624.38, 'sl_oid': 204642392537, 'tp_oid': 204642378805, 'wait_for_fill': False, 'entry_oid': 204642361395, 'notional_usd': 19287.88} {'symbol': 'SOL', 'quantity': 81.81, 'entry_price': 182.8, 'current_price': 188.155, 'liquidation_price': 175.05, 'unrealized_pnl': 438.09, 'leverage': 15, 'exit_plan': {'profit_target': 201.081, 'stop_loss': 176.713, 'invalidation_condition': 'If the price closes below 175 on a 3-minute candle'}, 'confidence': 0.7, 'risk_usd': 499.504, 'sl_oid': 204642449911, 'tp_oid': 204642440174, 'wait_for_fill': False, 'entry_oid': 204642432133, 'notional_usd': 15392.96} {'symbol': 'XRP', 'quantity': 3542.0, 'entry_price': 2.47, 'current_price': 2.47705, 'liquidation_price': 2.28, 'unrealized_pnl': 37.8, 'leverage': 10, 'exit_plan': {'profit_target': 2.8313, 'stop_loss': 2.3389, 'invalidation_condition': 'If the price closes below 2.30 on a 3-minute candle'}, 'confidence': 0.65, 'risk_usd': 435.11, 'sl_oid': -1, 'tp_oid': -1, 'wait_for_fill': False, 'entry_oid': 206949982120, 'notional_usd': 8773.71} {'symbol': 'BTC', 'quantity': 0.12, 'entry_price': 107343.0, 'current_price': 110220.5, 'liquidation_price': 97905.13, 'unrealized_pnl': 345.3, 'leverage': 10, 'exit_plan': {'profit_target': 118136.15, 'stop_loss': 102026.675, 'invalidation_condition': 'If the price closes below 105000 on a 3-minute candle'}, 'confidence': 0.75, 'risk_usd': 619.2345, 'sl_oid': 206132736980, 'tp_oid': 206132723593, 'wait_for_fill': False, 'entry_oid': 206132712257, 'notional_usd': 13226.46} {'symbol': 'DOGE', 'quantity': 27858.0, 'entry_price': 0.18, 'current_price': 0.19929, 'liquidation_price': 0.17, 'unrealized_pnl': 409.96, 'leverage': 10, 'exit_plan': {'profit_target': 0.212275, 'stop_loss': 0.175355, 'invalidation_condition': 'If the price closes below 0.180 on a 3-minute candle'}, 'confidence': 0.65, 'risk_usd': 257.13, 'sl_oid': -1, 'tp_oid': -1, 'wait_for_fill': False, 'entry_oid': 204672918246, 'notional_usd': 5551.82} {'symbol': 'BNB', 'quantity': 9.39, 'entry_price': 1073.69, 'current_price': 1097.85, 'liquidation_price': 1017.01, 'unrealized_pnl': 226.82, 'leverage': 10, 'exit_plan': {'profit_target': 1200.0, 'stop_loss': 1016.72, 'invalidation_condition': 'If the price closes below 1060 on a 3-minute candle'}, 'confidence': 0.75, 'risk_usd': 500.0, 'sl_oid': 205943827354, 'tp_oid': 205943822510, 'wait_for_fill': False, 'entry_oid': 205943810013, 'notional_usd': 10308.81} Sharpe Ratio: 0.012📊 中文翻译
你已交易 4516 分钟。当前时间为 2025-10-21 01:27:27 .932590,系统已调用你 1728 次。 下方提供了各类状态数据、价格数据和预测信号,供你挖掘超额收益(alpha)。 再下方是你的账户信息、资产价值、表现和持仓情况。
所有价格和信号数据均按时间顺序排列:从最早 → 最新 时间框架说明:除非小节标题另有说明,日内数据均为 3 分钟间隔。若某币种使用不同间隔,会在该币种小节中明确标注。
🔍 当前所有币种的市场状态
BTC 数据
- 当前价格:110220.5
- 20 周期 EMA:110266.998
- MACD:-76.828
- 7 周期 RSI:48.562
- 永续合约最新持仓量(OI):26910.71(平均:26902.63)
- 资金费率:+0.0000054689(极轻微看涨)
日内序列(3 分钟,共 10 根 K 线):
- 价格从 110420.5 缓慢回落至 110220.5
- MACD 从 -42.562 持续恶化至 -91.668 后开始回升至 -76.828(动量改善)
- RSI 从超买(60.8)快速跌至超卖(22.3),近期反弹至 48.56(中性)
4 小时级别:
- 20 EMA(109238)< 50 EMA(110421)→ 短期趋势偏空
- MACD 连续 4 根 K 线转正,RSI 高达 57.75 → 中期可能转多
- 成交量仅 35.88,远低于均值 4911.8 → 市场参与度低
ETH 数据
- 当前价格:3960.55
- EMA20:3966.241
- MACD:-4.78(小幅负值)
- RSI(7):40.003(轻度超卖)
- 资金费率:+0.0000125(看涨)
日内:
- 价格在 3956–3970 区间震荡
- RSI 一度跌至 13.8(极端超卖),现反弹至 40
4 小时:
- 20 EMA(3958.9)< 50 EMA(3991.3)→ 短期偏空
- 但 MACD 持续上升(从 -27 → +15),RSI 稳定在 52–62 → 中期趋势仍强
SOL 数据
- 价格:188.155,EMA:188.631
- RSI(7):38.615(超卖边缘)
- 资金费率微正
4 小时:
- 20 EMA < 50 EMA → 短期偏空
- MACD 在 0 轴附近徘徊,RSI 50.41 → 方向不明
BNB 数据
- 价格:1097.85,EMA:1097.538
- RSI(7):54.882(中性偏强)
- 但 4 小时 MACD 持续为负,RSI 仅 44.32 → 中期偏弱
XRP 数据
- 价格:2.47705,EMA:2.482
- RSI(7):35.881(超卖)
- 资金费率为负(-0.000000812),但极小
关键亮点:
- 4 小时 RSI 高达 61.78,MACD 持续上升 → 中期强势
- 日内回调至超卖区 → 可能是趋势中的买入机会
DOGE 数据
- 价格:0.19929,几乎持平 EMA
- RSI(7):49.385(中性)
- 4 小时 MACD 转正,RSI 58.5 → 略偏多
💰 你的账户信息与表现
- 总收益率:+29.0%
- 可用现金:$4927.64
- 当前账户总值:$12,899.70
- 夏普比率:0.012(较低,说明风险调整后收益一般)
当前持仓(全部盈利):
| ETH | 4.87 | 3844.03 | 3960.55 | +$567.45 | 15x | 3分钟收盘 < 3800 |
| SOL | 81.81 | 182.8 | 188.155 | +$438.09 | 15x | < 175 |
| XRP | 3542 | 2.47 | 2.47705 | +$37.80 | 10x | < 2.30 |
| BTC | 0.12 | 107343 | 110220.5 | +$345.30 | 10x | < 105000 |
| DOGE | 27858 | 0.18 | 0.19929 | +$409.96 | 10x | < 0.180 |
| BNB | 9.39 | 1073.69 | 1097.85 | +$226.82 | 10x | < 1060 |
所有仓位均未触发失效条件,且全部处于盈利状态。
🔎 含义解释(策略与逻辑分析)
1. 你正处于“持有盈利仓位 + 等待新机会”的理想状态
- 账户盈利 29%,说明前期交易成功。
- 所有持仓均未破位(未触发“3 分钟收盘跌破关键位”的失效条件),因此继续持有完全合理。
- 保留近 $5000 现金,具备开新仓能力,但不强行交易,体现纪律性。
2. 市场处于“缺乏明确方向”的震荡期
-
多数币种日内 RSI 超卖(ETH、SOL、XRP),但
4 小时趋势分化
:
- BTC、ETH、XRP 的 4 小时 MACD/RSI 显示中期仍偏多
- BNB、SOL 则偏弱
-
成交量普遍低迷(BTC 日内成交量仅 35 vs 均值 4911),说明市场观望情绪浓,缺乏突破动能。
3. XRP 是唯一有“潜在 alpha”的标的,但你无法操作
- XRP 日内超卖 + 4 小时强势 → 典型“回调买入”机会。
- 但你已持有 XRP 仓位,且规则禁止加仓(no pyramiding)。
- 因此,即使看到机会,也必须放弃——这是风险控制的核心。
4. DOGE 需特别关注
- 当前价格 0.19929,仅比失效价 0.180 高出约 10.7%。
- 虽未触发,但属于高风险边缘持仓,需密切监控 3 分钟 K 线收盘。
5. 夏普比率低(0.012)的警示
- 虽然总收益高(29%),但波动大或回撤多,导致风险调整后收益不高。
- 可能原因:高杠杆(10–15x)、多币种同时持仓、市场波动剧烈。
- 建议:未来可考虑降低杠杆或减少同时持仓数量,提升夏普比率。
✅ 总结:当前最优策略
“Hold all, watch DOGE, wait for clear signal.” (持有全部仓位,紧盯 DOGE,等待明确信号再开新仓。)
- 不平仓:所有失效条件未触发,盈利健康。
- 不开仓:无空仓币种可操作,且市场信号不够强。
- 不加仓:严格遵守“禁止加仓”规则。
- 保持耐心:在低成交量、高不确定性的市场中,不交易就是最好的交易。
这是一种成熟、纪律严明、风险意识强的交易风格,值得坚持。